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Eric Deters

2028 Is Already Over for the Republicans — They Lost Texas Last Night

Politics

2028 Is Already Over for the Republicans — They Lost Texas Last Night

J.D. Vance has no chance. Marco Rubio has no chance. The Democrats now control New York, Illinois, Texas, and California. The math for the Electoral College is nearly impossible for any Republican. Here's what last night really means for 2028.

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Eric Deters
••3 min read

Ladies and gentlemen, the American Jury and Bulldog Nation — let me tell you what is going to happen now in 2028.

Whoever the Democratic nominee is, is going to win. Whoever it is, is going to win.

You can never say never. But J.D. Vance has no chance. He just got repudiated right alongside President Trump last night. So did Marco Rubio.

Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley — somebody like that may get the nomination. But here is the problem. The structural problem that nobody is talking about this morning.

They Lost Texas Last Night

Do you realize what happened last night, folks?

The Republicans lost Texas. The Democratic Party won the governorship of Texas.

Think about what that means. The Democratic Party now controls New York. Illinois. Texas. California.

It is going to be nearly impossible for a Republican to win the Electoral College vote now.

That is not an opinion. That is a fact. It is a fact.

The Formula That No Longer Works

Here is how Republicans have always done the math. You write off New York and California — those go Democratic. You lock up Texas and Florida. And then you compete hard in the swing states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada.

That formula balanced out. It gave Republicans a path.

That formula is gone. Texas is gone. The anchor of the Republican Electoral College strategy just flipped.

Now the Democrats start with New York, Illinois, Texas, and California locked up. That is an enormous base of electoral votes before a single swing state is decided. The Republicans have to run the table on nearly every competitive state just to get to 270.

Nearly impossible. Not impossible. Nearly impossible.

Who Can the Republicans Even Run?

J.D. Vance is done. He was on the ticket. He got repudiated. That is the end of his national ambitions.

Marco Rubio — same story. He was part of this administration. He shares the result.

Ron DeSantis kept his distance. Nikki Haley kept her distance. One of them is probably the nominee. But even the best Republican candidate in 2028 is going to be running against a structural Electoral College deficit that did not exist two years ago.

The Democrats do not even need to run a great candidate. They just need to not lose Texas, New York, Illinois, and California — and they are not going to lose any of those four states.

This Is the Math

I am not celebrating this. I am not happy about it. I am telling you what is true.

The facts are the facts. Last night changed American politics in a way that is going to echo for a generation. The Republicans did this to themselves. Trump did this to himself. And the party is going to be living with the consequences for a very long time.

Watch what happens in 2028. You heard it here first.

Explore Topics

#2028#Electoral College#Texas#Republicans#Commentary#Bulldog Nation
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Written by

Eric Deters

Content creator and writer sharing insights and stories.

Key Takeaways

  • 1The Democrats won the Texas governorship last night — a seismic shift in American electoral politics.
  • 2With New York, Illinois, Texas, and California now in Democratic control, the Electoral College math is nearly impossible for any Republican presidential candidate.
  • 3J.D. Vance was repudiated alongside Trump last night and has no path to the 2028 nomination.
  • 4Marco Rubio, Ron DeSantis, and Nikki Haley are the names most likely to emerge — but the structural problem remains.
  • 5Republicans always balanced New York and California with Texas and Florida, then competed in swing states. That formula is gone.
  • 6This is not spin. This is math. The facts are the facts.
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