Phillies vs. Marlins betting preview: Aaron Nola’s struggles meet Sandy Alcantara’s home ERA edge
I took two losses yesterday, and both were on coinflip games. I acknowledged that in both articles, and unfortunately, we couldn’t get the games to bounce our way. Neither one of the games was a blowout loss or bad choices. The teams just didn’t get the wins that I was expecting them to get. Instead, we lost both games 3-2. Let us try to dodge that fate here as we take on the Phillies and Marlins.
The Philadelphia Phillies seem to have cooled off a bit after their hot stretch. They aren’t playing poorly by any means, but they just aren’t quite as successful as they had been. In July, they are just 9-12 and have lost five of their past six games. Maybe they just need to find a groove after the All-Star Break because they have gone 3-7 in the second half. Two of those wins have come in games that Christopher Sanchez has started.
The Phillies have a bit of a problem with their rotation. Overall, the team has a 4.25 ERA, and that is with Sanchez and Zach Wheeler owning a sub-three ERA. Today they send out Aaron Nola, who has struggled quite a bit this season. For the year, Nola is just 3-8 with a 5.82 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP. He does have 112 strikeouts this season, which is good for slightly more than one strikeout per inning. He also has been a little better on the road, but still has a 5.06 ERA. Arguably, his best outing of the season came against the Marlins when he went six innings, allowed five hits, and no runs. Overall, though, the Marlins are hitting .300 against him in 40 at-bats.
The Miami Marlins are now just below .500, but still making good progress this year. The All-Star Break proved to be a problem for the team because since they returned to action, the Marlins are just 1-9, being swept in each of the first three series post-break. They did win yesterday to snap the streak, and I think this team is susceptible to bad stretches considering they are young and figuring things out. There does seem to be good talent on the roster, though.
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I haven’t mentioned what they will do at the trade deadline because this recent streak might’ve changed them from buyers to sellers. That means that this could be the last start for Sandy Alcantara. This has been a bit of a mixed bag season for Alcantara. For the year, he is 10-6 with a 4.01 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. He owns a 3.26 home ERA, though, so Miami should feel confident with him on the hill. He has allowed only 24 earned runs at home and 13 of those came in two starts. He did face the Phillies earlier this year and allowed two earned runs in six innings of work.
I like the Marlins’ chances tonight to win another game. The Phillies haven’t been playing great baseball, and Nola has not had the year to consider him a stopper. However, the thing is that the Marlins might be playing even worse baseball. Perhaps it was a bad stretch, and they will be fine. I will back Miami in this one. I also like Alcantara to record over 17.5 outs in the game, but at -163, you can find less juicy options.
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MARLINS PITCHER JANSON JUNK’S SCORELESS STREAK MAKES MIAMI THE PICK AGAINST STRUGGLING AARON NOLA
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