Why the under at 175.5 looks like the play for Caitlin Clark’s Fever vs. Paige Bueckers’ Wings
I shared some thoughts on futures for the WNBA season yesterday, and we had three games last night that tipped off. However, the reality is that for most people, today will mark the official start of women’s basketball because Catilin Clark will be playing. That’s right, the Indiana Fever and everyone’s favorite female hooper takes center stage today as they host another beloved player in Paige Bueckers and the Dallas Wings.
The Dallas Wings went through a bit of a makeover during the offseason. Sure, they still are led by Bueckers, and they have a strong playmaker, Arike Ogunbowale, but now they also have last year’s co-Defensive Player of the Year, Alanna Smith, and they have the No. 1 overall pick, Azzi Fudd. If you are unaware, this is the second straight season that the Wings have had the top pick in the draft. That should give you some indication of how successful or good this franchise has been.
I’m not trying to knock them. They were able to get two of the best players coming out of college, both from UConn, in two years, and added players to hopefully turn the team around. There are some questions about how good the team can be outside of the four women I’ve mentioned, but the Wings will certainly be better than last year’s 10-win team. What should be interesting to me is how Fudd operates in this offense. Bueckers creates her own shots, but I don’t see Fudd doing much of that. If defenses have to focus on Bueckers and Ogunbowale, maybe she is left open to do her damage.
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On the other side is the Indiana Fever. I’d be shocked if most of the casual WNBA fans could name anyone outside of the “Tres Leches” that play on the Fever, but they actually have two other great players outside of Clark. Aliyah Boston, a former No. 1 overall pick, signed a huge deal in the offseason to stay in Indiana and arguably had her best season last year. It was a great sign because now that Clark is back, the offense has another person that teams have to worry about. Another hooper that fans should familiarize themselves with is Kelsey Mitchell.
Mitchell carried the Fever to the WNBA Semifinals last season before they lost to the Aces. She averaged a career high of 20.2 points last year and established herself as a true threat. Again, the floor could open up for her with Clark leading the way. That’s not to discount Lexi Hull or Sophie Cunningham, both very skilled role players for the team. Cunningham will give the team toughness, outside shooting and strong defense even as she returns from injury. Hull was almost out of the league until she became a deep threat.
In today’s game, we should expect to see a few things — Clark will likely get fewer than 30 minutes as they try to ease her back in after just 13 games last season. I’ve also heard rumors that she will play off the ball this year, which should be a nice change from the full-court press she has dealt with for two years. I also expect the Fever to try to figure out some things on offense.
The Wings will be in a similar situation. This is the first game of meaning they will play with a new coach, new teammates and a highly touted rookie. None of these things add up to a high-scoring game. I know why the total is so high — the Wings were awful on defense last year, and the Fever can score in bunches. However, this game is too high at 175.5. You’re asking the teams to score 85ish and 90ish points. That’s not happening in Game 1 of the season. Give me the under. For the record, when the Wings’ defense was worse last year, the teams combined to score 175, 185, 166 and 161 points in their four games. This will be a multiunit play for me.
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